The results come from of African American parents of school-aged children conducted by the research and polling company Morning Consult. Its findings, while capturing only a moment in time, may reflect educational preferences that have shifted significantly away from traditional public schools in the COVID era. 

Morning Consult鈥檚 survey was administered to roughly 1,300 respondents across January and February on behalf of , an Indianapolis-based advocacy group that backs school choice. During the pandemic, the organization has of parents and teachers on general perceptions of K鈥�12 education. Black adults, including parents, have been included both in those ongoing efforts and in separate surveys as districts adjusted to the demands of remote instruction and virus mitigation.

Overall, 57% of respondents said they supported education savings accounts 鈥� a financial vehicle that offers families money to spend on educational costs of their choosing 鈥� even without being provided a description of their function. Even higher proportions supported school vouchers (62%), open enrollment of public schools (66%), and charter schools (68%).

Paul DiPerna, EdChoice鈥檚 vice president of research and innovation, said he found it notable that families鈥� attitudes toward such policies have remained 鈥渇airly stable鈥� even as the circumstances surrounding schools have changed dramatically. In conducted in the fall of 2021, for example, two-thirds of African American parents said that COVID had made them more open to the idea of homeschooling; 65% said they were supportive of homeschooling today.

鈥淎t the time [of the previous poll], the pandemic looked a lot different for parents and schools,鈥� DiPerna said, invoking the Omicron wave that closed or severely disrupted schools in early 2022. 鈥淏ut some of these levels of support are still high for other modes of learning besides the traditional district school.鈥�

Black respondents in other public opinion research, including a February survey commissioned by the school choice advocacy group Yes. Every Kid., have demonstrated high levels of support for policies like vouchers and education savings accounts. Although such polls can provide substantially different findings depending on how questions are worded, African American parents鈥� somewhat more favorable attitudes toward school choice could be related to their relative satisfaction with local schools, than that of white parents in some previous polls. 

That openness to alternative modes of education could be somewhat greater than for parents of other backgrounds. In all, just 39% of African American parents said their post-pandemic preference would be for their children to spend the entire school week completely outside the home. By comparison, EdChoice鈥檚 February tracking poll of all K鈥�12 parents found that a slightly greater figure, 41%, said they favored such an outcome.

Black families have clearly demonstrated a greater willingness to experiment with learning outside traditional schools over the last few years. According to , the percentage of African American students classified as homeschoolers leapt from just 3.3% to 16.1% over the first COVID year. That explosive growth was undoubtedly powered by the adaptation to online learning, but updated federal figures are that participation in homeschooling has remained elevated among American families in the years since. 

Support for other forms of non-traditional schooling were also shown to be high, mostly in line with the attitudes of other demographic groups. Sixty-two percent of Morning Consult鈥檚 respondents said they had a favorable opinion of microschools (defined as a public, private, or homeschool learning environment that enrolls 25 or fewer students); somewhat surprisingly, 9% of respondents said their children were presently enrolled in a microschool.

Alex Spurrier, an associate partner at the nonprofit research and consulting group Bellwether Education Partners, said that while it鈥檚 difficult to gather real-time enrollment data on just how many families are experimenting with learning opportunities outside of traditional districts, the responses 鈥渟how greater interest and participation鈥� in programs like microschools.

鈥淚 think the openness and interest in some of these different options is one data point showing that there’s pretty strong demand among [African American] families for different kinds of education options than what their kids might be accessing currently.”

Black parents were also likely to say they were more involved in their children鈥檚 education than in the pre-COVID era, with 43% saying they felt 鈥渕uch more involved. Among those with annual incomes over $75,000 鈥� more than two-thirds of respondents said they were either somewhat or much more involved than before.

But the direction forward still isn鈥檛 clear. Asked whether they wanted their children鈥檚 general K鈥�12 experience to either change or stay the same, 62% said they sought some kind of change. While 38% reported that they were looking for something new, however, a sizable minority (24%) said they wanted things to revert back to the pre-COVID status quo. Just under one-quarter of parents said they preferred that schooling stay as it is now.

DiPerna said that the evidence clearly pointed to an openness to new educational experiences 鈥� either through school choice policies like vouchers and charters 鈥� or initiatives like microschools, pods and tutoring that can be implemented in a variety of settings. That curiosity exists among families of all backgrounds, he argued, and even in spite of the fact that roughly half of parents (including 57% of African American parents) said that their own local schools are on the right track.

“Even with the overall satisfaction levels with schools, you still see that there’s an underlying preference for different types of schools 鈥� non-trivial numbers, by any definition, especially if you extrapolate to the full population of students around the country.”

A year after the nation鈥檚 schools experienced a historic decline in enrollment, new data shows that many urban districts are still losing students, and those that rebounded this year typically haven鈥檛 returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Whether families withdrew to enroll their children in online charters, school them at home or fled to far-flung suburbs with more affordable housing, the pandemic has triggered population shifts that could change the composition of U.S. school districts for years to come.

Data from Burbio, a company that tracks COVID-related education trends, offers the first look at the degree to which states and districts have recovered from a punishing year of lockdown and remote learning. Out of 40 states and the District of Columbia, few have seen more than a 1% increase compared to 2020-21, when some states experienced declines as high as 5%.

Flat enrollment this year 鈥渕eans those kids did not come back,鈥� said Thomas Dee, an education professor at Stanford University. 鈥淧arents were making these enrollment decisions last summer. There was still a great deal of uncertainty. Parents wanted stability for their kids.鈥�

shows that last year鈥檚 losses were concentrated in the early grades. Those who opted not to enroll their young children in public schools last year, or found an in-person option somewhere else, might never return for middle or high school, Dee said. 

While enrollment in many of the nation鈥檚 urban districts was already shrinking before the pandemic, school closures and economic upheaval forced many families to make decisions they might have put off otherwise.

Barring further pandemic disruptions, student population trends will likely return to their pre-COVID pace, Dee said, but added, 鈥淭he effects of the sharp, recent enrollment declines may be long-lived. The fiscal consequences will remain for some while.鈥�

New York experienced the sharpest decline, a 2% drop 鈥� more than 48,000 students 鈥� since last year. That鈥檚 on top of the previous year鈥檚 3% decline. Enrollment in Florida saw the biggest bounce at 4%, or more than 111,000 additional students 鈥� a reflection of higher birth rates, job growth and fewer COVID restrictions under Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, experts say. 

Of the 10 largest districts in the nation, only Florida鈥檚 Orange and Hillsborough counties, home to Orlando and Tampa respectively, saw enrollment surpass pre-pandemic figures.

鈥淔lorida was continuing to grow when other states came to a plateau,鈥� said Susan MacManus, a political scientist from the University of South Florida. 鈥淭hings were open and you could still work.”

State data offers a glimpse of what will likely be further enrollment growth in Arizona, Florida and Utah 鈥� states with more affordable housing, growing tech sectors and outdoor living that became an important draw during COVID. At the same time, fewer people are moving to the Northeast from other states and countries, citing . 

District-level figures 鈥� provided exclusively by Burbio to 社区黑料 鈥� offer a richer picture of what happened to students after the pandemic began. The data, combined with state-level reports and interviews with district officials and parents, shows many urban districts lost students to growing exurbs. And some districts with no population growth added thousands of students in virtual schools.

Districts with enrollment loss could face tough decisions about layoffs and school closures in the near future. Meanwhile, smaller districts that are rapidly gaining students are struggling to hire staff and preserve the kind of close-knit environment that drew many parents in the first place.

鈥淭he pandemic kind of accelerated some of those pre-existing trends,鈥� said Alex Spurrier, an associate partner at Bellwether Education Partners, a think tank. While school closures forced many parents to look for other options, housing and rental prices were also pushing families out of major metro regions. 鈥淎ll you have to do is go to Zillow and see the year-over-year changes,鈥� he said.

In December 2019, Tanner and Miranda McCutchan relocated from northern California to Boise, Idaho 鈥� one of 10 metro areas that saw the most growth between 2020 and 2021, according to recent . That leaves two fewer children who will enter California鈥檚 schools in the coming years. Miranda stays home with 4-year-old Paige, who attends a Montessori preschool, and 18-month-old Emery, while her husband runs a glass company. 

鈥淲e couldn鈥檛 afford a house where we lived,鈥� she said. 鈥淚t was keep renting or move somewhere we could buy a place.鈥�

The fiscal cliff & 鈥楢rmageddon鈥�

In California, Burbio collected data only from Los Angeles, Oakland and San Diego. All three saw declines, due in part to California鈥檚 high-priced . With the state鈥檚 school-age population expected to keep over the next decade, district leaders are bracing for a to their budgets.

The Oakland Unified Public Schools offers a preview of what other districts with declining enrollment and birth rates will soon confront 鈥� the painful and unpopular decision to close schools. In February, the district, which saw a 5.6% enrollment decline compared to last year, decided it would over the next two years. Four others will merge or reduce grade levels.

In the Granite School District, near Salt Lake City, enrollment fell 2.4%, down to 60,371 this year, even though the state鈥檚 overall enrollment is up. 

The district has seen a decline in birth rates and an increase in families fleeing to 鈥渃heaper areas to build larger homes within [Salt Lake County],鈥� said Benjamin Horsley, chief of staff for the district, adding officials anticipate 鈥渓eveling out around 55,000 students.鈥� The district has already closed three schools and expects to shutter 10 to 14 more in the next five to seven years. 

Districts experiencing similar losses should have been making those tough calls before the pandemic, said Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University.

鈥淔ederal [relief] money is delaying it a year or two, and the fact that state budgets are healthy is delaying it a year or two,鈥� she said about closing schools. Roza advises a network of over 40 urban districts nationwide, the majority of which are shrinking. 鈥淔ederal money will run out, and enrollment for some of them isn’t isn’t going to come back. These cost factors are going to just slam down on people.鈥�

Los Angeles Unified, for example, saw a 5.9% decline this year and is expected to by fall of 2023. Superintendent Alberto Carvalho said Monday that he鈥檚 not yet considering closing schools, but added that at the end of his first 100 days 鈥� in about two more months 鈥� he will discuss 鈥渢echnical corrections鈥� and 鈥渂elt tightening鈥� measures to respond to the loss of students. 

He agrees with Roza about the dangers of the approaching fiscal cliff, and didn鈥檛 mince words about what would happen to the district if it didn鈥檛 turn enrollment trends around by the time federal relief funds dry up in 2024. 鈥淎rmageddon,鈥� he said. Then he added, 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a hurricane of massive proportions.鈥� 

The student population in the Clark County School District, which includes Las Vegas, began dropping about five years ago. Superintendent Jesus Jara attributes much of the decline to the growth of charter schools. 

鈥淭he anti-charter discussion 鈥� that was in the 鈥�90s. They鈥檙e not going away,鈥� Jara said. 鈥淭he discussion is how are we more flexible and how we are more agile for our communities.鈥� 

Despite declining enrollment, the district needs to build and renovate 33 schools to better serve its current population, he said. That includes breaking up some large, 4,000-student high schools to offer more 鈥渂outique鈥� and career-focused programs to compete with charters.

鈥楬as not slowed down鈥�

Districts with falling enrollment are strategizing how to keep the students they have. But accelerated growth comes with its own challenges, Roza said, putting pressure on leaders to act fast, especially if they need to recruit staff amid a nationwide hiring shortage. Schools might be 鈥渄igging deeper and deeper into applicant pools鈥� and not necessarily choosing the best candidates, she said. 

Liberty Hill Independent School District, northwest of Austin, Texas, didn鈥檛 lose students during the pandemic. Enrollment, at 5,539 last year, is now over 6,800 鈥� a 23% percent leap. It鈥檚 a bedroom community that just got its first H-E-B, a 鈥渂ig box鈥� grocery store, and is conveniently located near a toll road with easy access to Apple鈥檚 new complex near Austin. 

During the pandemic, the community 鈥渁ctually saw a 40 percent rise in residential home builds, and it has not slowed down,鈥� said Superintendent Steven Snell. The district has eight schools now and will open a ninth next year. 

Parents value the district鈥檚 small-town atmosphere and the sense that educators know their families well, he said 鈥� connections that could be hard to maintain as the district adds 1,000 students a year. Meanwhile, the district has raised salaries for substitutes because of shortages, and there鈥檚 a scarcity of available bus drivers, custodians and cafeteria workers.

鈥淲hen you have a salary that is causing you to live paycheck to paycheck, you鈥檙e going to jump ship for a little more money to survive,鈥� Snell said.

Many of the enrollment swings this year reflect the success of online programs in meeting the needs of families for consistency amid the pandemic鈥檚 many disruptions.

For some virtual charters, the enrollment spike was temporary. Oklahoma鈥檚 Epic One on One, an online program, had 17,106 students in 2019-20. Enrollment roughly doubled last year and is now down to 23,156, according to state data.  

鈥淢any parents decided to enroll their student in Epic once the pandemic hit, but it appears that trend has slowed with this year’s enrollment numbers,鈥� said Carrie Burkhart, a spokeswoman for the Oklahoma Department of Education.

But whether parents are concerned about COVID or found that online school better suits their children, virtual programs remain in high demand. 

South Carolina鈥檚 enrollment has increased almost 2%, due in part to 鈥渟kyrocketing enrollment in virtual charters,鈥� said Ryan Brown, spokesman for the state鈥檚 education department.

The student population in the Huntsville Independent School District, about an hour north of Houston, shot up 40% this year because it operates the Texas Online Preparatory School. And in Colorado, Harrison School District 2, near Colorado Springs, began a partnership with The Vanguard School, a virtual program and one of three charter systems affiliated with the district.

鈥淢any might see it as a public school district versus charter battle,鈥� said Harrison Superintendent Wendy Birhanzel. 鈥淲e believe this makes us stronger and responds to the needs of the community.鈥�

Homeschooling trends

While Burbio data offers an incomplete picture of where lost students have gone, others have been trying to fill in the missing pieces. The Census Bureau鈥檚 Household Pulse Survey showed that homeschooling jumped from about 5% of households to the fall after the pandemic began. By the start of this school year, it had settled back down to about 7%, according to August 2021 data.

Others have left for more established private schools. Michelle Walker, an Oregon mother who became an advocate for school reopening last year, withdrew her daughter from the Canby Public Schools, near Portland. She secured a spot 鈥� and financial aid 鈥� at a private school for fourth-grader MacKenzie. She also took out a loan and received money from family to help cover tuition.

鈥淚 drive 80 miles roundtrip every day to make sure she goes to a good school,鈥� she said. 鈥淚t would take a lot for me to put her back in public schools.鈥�

shows many other parents are following suit. According to Burbio, most districts in Multnomah County, which includes Portland, and nearby Clackamas County have seen enrollment declines this year. 

Some district leaders are still hoping to lure back students they鈥檝e lost. The Bernalillo Public Schools, north of Albuquerque, serves families in Pueblo and Hispanic communities, including many in multi-family households concerned about COVID risk. 

The district was the last in the state to lift its mask mandate. Superintendent Matt Monta帽o said he鈥檚 encouraged that enrollment, while still below pre-pandemic figures, has picked up slightly since last year. 

The district鈥檚 pre-K program, with 190 students at three schools, earned a five-star rating from the state education department 鈥� an accomplishment Monta帽o hopes will help recruit new students.

鈥淥nce we get them in our doors,鈥� he said, 鈥渢here’s no reason why they should leave us.鈥�